Risk assessment of TBT in the Japanese short-neck clam (Ruditapes philippinarum) of Tokyo Bay using a chemical fate model     

Fumio Horiguchi  Kisaburo Nakata  Naganori Ito  Ken Okawa 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2006,70(4):589

A risk assessment of Tributyltin (TBT) in Tokyo Bay was conducted using the Margin of Exposure (MOE) method at the species level using the Japanese short-neck clam, Ruditapes philippinarum. The assessment endpoint was defined to protect R. philippinarum in Tokyo Bay from TBT (growth effects). A No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) for this species with respect to growth reduction induced by TBT was estimated from experimental results published in the scientific literature. Sources of TBT in this study were assumed to be commercial vessels in harbors and navigation routes. Concentrations of TBT in Tokyo Bay were estimated using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an ecosystem model and a chemical fate model. MOEs for this species were estimated for the years 1990, 2000, and 2007. Estimated MOEs for R. philippinarum for 1990, 2000, and 2007 were approximately 1–3, 10, and 100, respectively, indicating a declining temporal trend in the probability of adverse growth effects.A simplified software package called RAMTB was developed by incorporating the chemical fate model and the databases of seasonal flow fields and distributions of organic substances (phytoplankton and detritus) in Tokyo Bay, simulated by the hydrodynamic and ecological model, respectively.  相似文献   

Are invasive species most successful in habitats of low native species richness across European brackish water seas?   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Marjo Paavola  Sergej Olenin  Erkki Leppkoski 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2005,64(4):738-750

European brackish water seas (Baltic Sea, Black Sea and Sea of Azov, Caspian Sea) are subject to intense invasion of non-indigenous species (NIS). In these seas, salinity is the most important range limiting factor and native species seem to reach a minimum species richness at intermediate salinities. This trend, revealed by Remane in 1934 and later on confirmed by many other scientists, was compared to the salinity range of already established NIS in the European brackish water seas. It turned out that most NIS are well adapted to the salinities holding lowest native species richness, already in their native area, and that NIS richness maximum in brackish water seas occurs in the salinity intervals of native species richness minimum. A predictable pattern in the salinity range of NIS can be used as a tool in initial risk assessment of future invasions in brackish water seas, especially when mapping highly potential donor and recipient areas. A product of empty niches, suitable environmental conditions, and availability of proper vectors might be the most effective predictor for the invasibility of brackish water areas.  相似文献   

Probabilistic methods for marine ecological risk assessment     

Schobben  H. P. M.; Scholten  M. C. Th. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1993,50(4):349-358

  相似文献   

Risk Assessment for Tuzla Naval Base Breakwater   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Can Elmar BALAS 《中国海洋工程》2003,17(3)

1 .IntroductionTurkeywasstruckbytwomajorearthquakeeventsonAugust 1 7thandNovember 1 2th ,1 999,namedIzmit (Mw=7.4 )andD櫣ｚｃｅ (Mw=7.2 )earthquakes,respectively .ThestationsoperatedbytheGeneralDirectorateofDisasterAffairs,theKandilliObservatoryandEarthquakeResearchInstituteofIstanbulTechnicalUniversitymeasuredatleast 2 7stronggroundmotionsfortheIzmitearthquakewithin 2 0 0kmofthefault.AsignificantsegmentofthefaultrupturedintheareabetweenthewestofGolcukandtheeastofLakeSapanca .Inthesou…  相似文献   

防波堤风险分析研究框架   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李炎保  马青山  蒋学炼 《海洋通报》2006,25(1):16-23

介绍了防波堤风险分析研究的内容、方法和目前的研究进展。防波堤风险分析包涵四个主要方面:防波堤风险辨识、防波堤风险估计、防波堤风险评价和防波堤风险控制。具体内容包括:防波堤系统正常使用极限状态和承载力极限状态的界定,波浪不确定性的识别和描述,防波堤失效模式的探讨,单一模式失效概率和系统失效概率的计算,两种极限状态失效后果的量化,成本-获益分析,效用分析,可接受风险准则和降低风险的措施。防波堤风险分析的目的在于为决策者明确工程中存在的诸多不确定性因素,提供充足信息,实现项目的决策优化。  相似文献   

基于AHP法和灰色模式识别理论的海底管道系统路由定量风险评估   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3  

徐慧 肖楠郭振邦  王金英 《海洋工程》2005,23(4):105-110

根据海底管道路由潜在风险的特点及风险类型,提出了一种将层次分析法（AHP法）和灰色模式识别理论相结合的海底管道系统路由定量风险评估方法,该方法利用AHP确定风险评价指标体系,运用灰色模式识别理论,建立识别结果标准,并结合实际工程进行计算,计算结果表明该方法是可行的.  相似文献   

基于GIS的县域土壤重金属生态风险评价   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

刘庆  王静  汪庆华  张建国  张衍毓 《测绘科学》2008,33(3):90-93

为研究经济快速发展区农田土壤中重金属的含量及污染状况,本文以浙江省慈溪市为研究对象,研究土壤中铜、汞、镉、铅、砷、铬、锌七种重金属含量特征,并采用潜在生态危害指数法对其进行评价,并绘制生态风险危害指数分级图。结果表明:土壤中除汞元素含量较高外,其他各元素含量仅稍高于当地土壤背景值。七种元素的单因子污染指数Cfi值均属于中等的污染参数,综合污染指数Cd上限值已处于高污染指数的范围,但平均值为属于中等污染水平。从潜在生态风险评价结果来看,七种元素的单项潜在生态风险参数Eri的值也只有汞达到了强生态危害,七种元素综合潜在生态危害指数RI刚刚达到中等生态危害水平,说明该区农田土壤尚处于较低的生态风险状态。生态危害指数插值结果表明,慈溪市重金属元素的高风险区分布在中南部人类活动较为活跃、城乡工业较发达的区域,在今后的土地利用中,应高度重视人类活动对土壤重金属污染的影响。  相似文献   

利用GPS组合观测值探测与修复周跳算法实现     

袁本银  高成发  陈春花 《测绘科学》2008,(Z1)

本文在目前常用的周跳探测和修复方法的基础上,根据相位减伪距组合,Melbourne-Wübbena组合,电离层残差组合三种GPS组合观测值优缺点互补,将这三种组合观测值有机结合产生可靠的探测与修复周跳算法并用程序实现,通过实例分析证明此算法能够探测和修复任意大小的周跳。  相似文献   

新疆阿尔泰山南部富蕴右旋走滑断裂带晚第四纪错断水系的遥感分析研究   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

张之武  付碧宏  Yasuo Awata 《第四纪研究》2008,28(2):273-279

富蕴断裂带位于阿尔泰山南侧,横切阿尔泰山褶皱带南缘及额尔齐斯深断裂,是一条呈北北西向展布的右旋走滑断裂带。沿断裂带发育一系列错断水系、错断冲积扇、挤压脊、走滑拉分盆地等反映右旋走滑活动的典型构造地貌标志。本研究在高分辨率遥感图像和数字高程模型分析的基础上,结合野外实地构造地貌测量,对沿富蕴断裂带发育的系统错断水系特征进行了详细分析研究。研究结果表明,沿富蕴断裂带发育不同级别的错断水系,大致可划分为6级:1931年地震形成的冲沟;90m左右断距的错断水系;150m左右断距的错断水系;500m左右断距的错断水系;1500m左右断距的错断水系;2000m以上断距的错断水系。同时,结合研究区及邻区的第四纪冰川资料讨论了不同级别水系可能形成时间:恰尔沟三级支流可能形成时间为末次冰期Ⅲ阶段末期,约20ka;恰尔沟二级支流可能形成时间为末次冰期Ⅰ阶段末期,约120ka;恰尔沟一级支流可能形成于该地区冰川广泛消融的倒数第2次冰期的Ⅱ阶段末期,约为250ka;恰尔沟、水磨沟、白杨沟、乌铁布拉克河、卡布尔特河等可能形成于倒数第3次冰期Ⅱ阶段末期,约为360ka。最后,我们估算出富蕴断裂带晚第四纪以来的平均右旋走滑速率为1.46～4.99mm/a。  相似文献   

基于GIS的天水市滑坡危险性评价          下载免费PDF全文

白晓华  马金辉  冯乐涛  韩庆宪 《甘肃地质》2008,(4):72-75

本文通过统计学方法提取可能影响该地区滑坡的因子。并依据二元逻辑回归结果．利用GIS空间分析和建模功能,对研究区滑坡进行建模,再由相关性等级分析方法进一步获取相关影响因子对滑坡的影响范围,最终得出该区域滑坡危险性评价图。而在不同分辨率尺度上,对滑坡产生影响的因子有所相同,当分辨率由1000m-60m时,影响因子明显增多。以逻辑回归模型自身精度、滑坡实际发生比和坡度法为模型判定标准,发现120m分辨率下的滑坡发生概率模型能有效表达研究区滑坡发生状况。  相似文献